Can the ‘summer of sequels’ save the film industry?

2023 WAS THE FIRST year since 2001 that none of the top three highest grossing films were sequels. Barbie took first place, followed by The Super Mario Bros. Movie and Oppenheimer. There’s an argument to be made that, given the existing renown of their main characters, neither Barbie or Super Mario Bros. are truly standalone films, but that’s not the point here.

We were led to believe that 2023 was going to be a turning point for blockbuster films; it was supposed to be a sign that audiences were hungry for fresh ideas and that studios were moving away from a business model that relies on recycling the same characters, universes and concepts. Turns out, that may have been a flash in the pan.

We’re now more than halfway through 2024 and the year in film has been an interesting one so far. We’ve had some intriguing original concepts like Challengers, The Fall Guy and The Bikeriders draw in a fair few viewers. But at the box office, there’s been a recurring theme: the seven highest grossing films are all sequels.

At the time of writing, the current top seven highest grossing films of 2024 are as follows: Inside Out 2, Dune: Part Two, Godzilla x Kong: the New Empire, Kung Fu Panda 4, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Bad Boys: Ride or Die and Despicable Me 4. We’ve also seen new additions to the Mad Max, Ghostbusters, A Quiet Place and Beverly Hills Cop franchises in recent months, with a Twister reboot starring Glen Powell, Ridley Scott’s Gladiator 2 and what is effectively a double sequel in Deadpool & Wolverine still to come.

That’s right, the most commercially viable original idea Hollywood could come up with this year was . . . drumroll please . . . The Garfield Movie.

The sequel releases are now ramping up, and it’s at the most important time of the year for the film industry – Australian winter. Ok, it’s actually the United States’ summer, which is when Americans frequent movie cinemas most often. It’s a crucial time of year for the film industry and it can make or break a studio. Barbenheimer headlined the season last year and rode the hype into record breaking grosses. This year, rehashes are in. It’s what the Wall Street Journal has called the ‘summer of sequels’.

The summer of sequels will decide whether or not 2024 will be considered a net positive for the industry. And after the double blows of COVID-19 and the actors’ and writers’ strikes, box office wins are needed now more than ever. In 2019 alone, nine films grossed over $1 billion. Only seven have crossed the same threshold in the five years since. Times are tough.

That likely explains why studios are leaning more heavily on sequels for franchises or films that have had proven success in the past. All bets are off in a post-COVID world, and if Twister was big in the ‘90s, surely what is essentially the same film with a glossier new cast can reap enough nostalgia for a moderately successful box office run in 2024, right? We’ll see.

These new sequels may be built for commercial success, but they don’t always find it. Furiosa and Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire have already bombed this year, and while other sequels have found mainstream success, they’re not exactly lining up for awards – with the exception of Dune: Part Two, which may have a shot. This is indicative of the new film studio business model. You have the big-budget and typically family-friendly tentpoles that have the ability to prop up a studio but face only middling critical success, and the lower budget serious stuff, which won’t make as much money, but could win a few awards if the hype train goes the right way.

This is in stark contrast to the industry 20 years ago, when the big-budget blockbusters could – and frequently would – win Oscars. Just look at the Lord of the Rings trilogy – which racked up 17 total Oscars and made nearly $3 billion – for proof. Until recently, the industry was sustained not by sequels, reboots and franchises, but by fresh, imaginative concepts that made audiences far more willing to reach into their pockets and pay the price of admission. To back that up, let’s take a look at the box office from the last time there were no sequels among the year’s highest grossing films, 2001.

There are certainly some familiar names in this bunch, many of which went on to have sequels made about them. In fact, the entire top five is made up of films that became the first instalment in a franchise. But at the time they were released, they were a whole new dimension for audiences. Before they saw them in theatres, viewers were largely unfamiliar with what would become the Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter franchises. They certainly weren’t going into the standalone films of Shrek, Monsters Inc. and Ocean’s Eleven expecting them to be continued in later stories.

Box office numbers from the year 2000 are further proof of just how much originality the industry was working with. The only sequel in the top ten highest grossing films was Mission: Impossible II – a franchise we’re now seven films deep in, with an eighth on the way – and the rest of the top ten is filled with standalone films that garnered not just commercial, but also critical success.

Clearly, we’re not just imagining this uptick in sequels (vindication!). The question now becomes whether they can truly revive the industry. The box office just isn’t busting as often as it was five years ago, and as we mentioned earlier, true, culture-defining films are harder to come by these days. As are films that can break even against their budget. As a result of these diminishing returns, budgets are shrinking to accommodate for lower grosses.

That doesn’t mean films can’t turn a profit though. Inside Out 2 might not outgross Avatar, but it has already made more than $1 billion more than its budget. It, and other sequels like it, represent a fairly safe bet for studios. It’s a film that doesn’t cost close to ten digits to make, but it’s almost guaranteed to draw plenty of viewers. The sequel could be the future of the film industry, the only problem is we’re not sure how much longer audiences will be able to stomach them.

Sure, the second instalment in the Inside Out franchise has been a success, but will the fifth? How many sequels can a film have before audiences simply decide they don’t care anymore. Films like Twister can only be rebooted once, so what happens when we run out of films to reboot? Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire could be the answer to those questions, proving that the tap has to run dry eventually.

For now, sequels will continue to dominate the box office, but their clock is ticking. And perhaps the sooner their time comes the better, because they’re already influencing the few remaining standalone films. One of the most intriguing original concepts of the season, Kevin Costner’s self-funded passion project Horizon: An American Saga, has been predicated on having three sequels, since before the first film had even been released.

Costner’s assumption that the first film in his saga will be successful enough to fund the later ones could bankrupt him, but what about the impact on viewers? We can’t even go see a one-off standalone film anymore. Instead, we have to assume that it’s only the first part in a larger saga. In Costner’s world, we should have no qualms about devoting three hours to a film, knowing that there’s at least 9 more hours to come. That’s not a world we want to live in.

Related:

The best films and documentaries to watch at the 2024 Sydney Film Festival

Costner, Coppola and the merits and risks of directors bankrolling their own films